Lula up four points in a week, could win 1st round

A new survey by FSB Pesquisa, commissioned by Banco BTG Pactual and published today (Monday, August 15), shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading the electoral race for the presidency, with 45% of voter intention. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is in second with 34%.

In relation to the study by the same research company released last week, Lula had a growth of four percentage points while Bolsonaro remained parked at the same level. The difference between the two main candidates increased from 7 to 11 percentage points in 7 days.

Lula tied, in the margin of error, with the sum of all other candidates (45% to 46%), which could guarantee his victory in the first round. The result reverses the trend towards Bolsonaro, who had been showing growth in recent polls.

Former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT) came in third in the survey, with 8% of votes, followed by senator Simone Tebet (MDB), with 2%. Other candidates did not score.

Second Round

In the scenario of a second round of elections, Lula would beat all the other candidates. The former president receives 53% of voter intention in the poll, while Bolsonaro has 38%. If the dispute is with Ciro Gomes, Lula has 50% against 29% and with Simone Tebet, Lula would have 54% against 26% respectively.

The institute polled 2,000 voters by phone between August 12 and 14, 2022. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points and the confidence index is 95%.

This article was originally published in Brasil de Fato