New Study Suggests Significant Underreporting of Gaza Death Toll
A recent study reviewed by The Lancet, released on Thursday, suggests that the death toll in Gaza reported by the local Ministry of Health from October 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024, may have been underestimated by as much as 41%. This analysis highlights the severe impact of the Israeli offensive in the region and the challenges in gathering precise mortality data amidst continuous bombings.
The health ministry of Gaza reported 37,877 fatalities due to Israeli military actions during the specified timeframe. However, the study in The Lancet proposes that the actual number of deaths might have reached 64,260, noting that women, children, and the elderly made up nearly 60% of the detailed casualties.
The figure presented only includes deaths caused by direct trauma, excluding those resulting from starvation, exposure to cold, or illnesses.
The researchers developed their estimate by assembling three datasets: one from sequential health ministry morgue records, another from an online health ministry survey, and a third from death notices on popular social media platforms. They manually gathered data from these open-source social media platforms, specifically targeting pages that posted obituaries, including those dedicated to Gaza’s martyrs and The Palestinian Information Center.
These social media sites serve as common spaces for sharing obituary information, where friends and family can announce deaths, share condolences, and pay tribute to those killed in conflicts, referred to as martyrs. The platforms, which include X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram, were regularly updated throughout the study period, providing a rich source of casualty data. The obituaries usually listed the deceased’s name, age, date, and place of death and often included photos and personal anecdotes. The researchers translated posts from English to Arabic to ensure accuracy in matching names across their lists, excluding deaths from non-traumatic causes.
The team of researchers, which included scholars from the UK, US, and Japan, expressed that the results indicate an extraordinarily high mortality rate in Gaza during this period and underscored the critical need for interventions to minimize further casualties and to expose significant patterns in wartime conduct.
Determining an accurate death count has been significantly complicated by continuous Israeli bombings and the resulting destruction of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure, following a deadly attack led by Hamas. It is believed that tens of thousands are still missing beneath the rubble of destroyed buildings and homes in Gaza.
The study also pointed out that the intensification of Israeli military ground operations and strikes on health facilities greatly hindered Gaza’s data collection capabilities. Before October 7, 2023, Gaza’s Ministry of Health was noted for its precise mortality records, with a previous underreporting rate of only 13%, and its data was regarded as trustworthy.
However, since the onset of Israel’s severe retaliation to the Hamas-initiated attack, the credibility of the health ministry’s data has been questioned by several US officials and leaders who support Israel’s military actions, including President Joe Biden. According to the latest estimates from the Ministry of Health, over 46,000 Palestinians have died since the conflict began on October 7, 2023.
Recently, the US Congress passed a comprehensive military policy bill that prevents the Pentagon from officially recognizing the Gaza health ministry’s death toll figures as credible. President Biden signed this bill into law on December 23.
Representative Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), who opposed the bill, expressed her concerns to The Intercept, stating that this move significantly overlooks the suffering of the Palestinian people and neglects the human impact of the ongoing conflict.
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