Climate Crisis May Make Ocean Heat 800x More Likely to Intensify Hurricanes Like Milton

Residents of Florida are bracing for Hurricane Milton, as recent studies released Monday indicate that climate change has significantly increased the likelihood—by 400 to 800 times—of the high sea-surface temperatures that are intensifying this massive storm.

Climate Central, a research group, reported that Milton is forecasted to hit the densely populated area of Tampa Bay by Wednesday night. The storm, described as “historically powerful,” has rapidly intensified due to sea-surface temperatures that have been heightened by global warming.

The sea-surface temperatures in the region where Milton has been forming “are at or above record-breaking highs,” according to Climate Central. These conditions have enabled the storm to rapidly escalate into what the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has called an “extremely serious threat to Florida,” a state already dealing with the aftermath of the destructive Hurricane Helene.

“Clearly, climate change has warmed the Gulf waters, boosting Milton’s growth and making it far more perilous,” stated Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist at Climate Central. “The influence of fossil fuel pollution is exacerbating this hazard.”

As noted by New York Times climate reporters Raymond Zhong and Mira Rojanasakul on Monday, “The upper layer of the world’s oceans has been recording near-highest temperatures for the past eighteen months.”

They added, “The oceans are absorbing the majority of the excess heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases close to the Earth’s surface, contributing to the abnormal heat affecting various towns, cities, and regions, while also heating the oceans.”

Milton grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over 24 hours—a transformation that experts Jeff Masters and Bob Henson labeled “a remarkable and worrying achievement.” The hurricane has slightly weakened to a Category 4 as it progresses across the Gulf of Mexico, but it still poses a severe threat.

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“It is highly probable that Milton will turn into an immensely destructive hurricane, potentially causing damages exceeding $10 billion in Florida—and it might also rank among the most expensive hurricanes in U.S. history, depending on specific landfall details,” they reported Monday. “There is also a significant risk of fatalities if individuals in vulnerable areas ignore evacuation orders.”

With Milton approaching, many Florida counties have already issued voluntary or mandatory evacuation orders, just days after Helene caused deadly destruction across six states.

“Communities already devastated by Helene are now facing this new challenge. Millions might be asked to evacuate,” stated the American Red Cross. “Both Helene and Milton exemplify the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Meteorologists attribute Helene’s extensive and heavy rainfall, which spread hundreds of miles from the coast, directly to the climate crisis. Milton is now recorded as the third fastest rapidly intensifying storm in the Atlantic, based on over four decades of data from the National Hurricane Center.”

The Associated Press reported late Monday that “with evacuation orders in place, forecasters are warning of an 8- to 12-foot (2.4- to 3.6-meter) storm surge in Tampa Bay.”

“This is the highest prediction for the area ever and nearly double the surge levels seen two weeks ago during Helene,” reported AP, quoting an NHC spokesperson.

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