About 2,000 years ago, Saul of Tarsus, a wandering preacher, penned words to a misdirected congregation in Corinth, Greece, that eerily resonate with the massive transformation we may soon encounter. He wrote, “For now we see in a glass, darkly,” suggesting a future only partly comprehended but eventually to be fully grasped.
Today, as we watch a world dazzled by current events from elections to conflicts, we too peer into an obscured mirror, unable to see the unfolding future. This future hints at the crumbling of the four long-standing empires—China, France, Russia, and the United States—that have heavily influenced global politics and economics since the end of the Cold War in 1990.
The Fading French Empire in Africa
First, examining the French neocolonial empire in North Africa offers insights into the declining global order. France managed to wield substantial global influence, despite its limited size and natural resources, through ruthless tactics including covert operations, military interventions, and economic manipulations that are less visible in the larger empires.
For six decades following the formal end of its colonial rule in North Africa in 1960, France maintained control over 14 African nations, integrating them into a neocolonial realm known as Françafrique. This domain was largely orchestrated by Jacques Foccart, who from 1960 to 1997 managed France’s shadowy neocolonial affairs as the “presidential adviser for Africa.” Using a network of 150 secret agents, Foccart maintained France’s grip on these countries through a mixture of diplomatic strategies and dark practices.
French military might, including frequent deployments of elite paratroopers, ensured the stability of friendly dictatorships across the region. This control was economically advantageous, allowing France to exploit these countries’ natural resources while maintaining them within a monetary union that benefited the French economy.
However, recent developments signal the end of Françafrique. The Chadian foreign minister’s announcement last month of expelling French military forces marks a significant move towards sovereignty and the end of French dominance after 60 years.
The Fragility of Russia’s Modern Empire
Russia’s imperial ambitions have been more geopolitically motivated. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, President Vladimir Putin sought to regain influence over the old Soviet territories. His strategies included military interventions in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, and a significant military thrust into Ukraine in 2022.
However, Putin’s efforts to extend Russian influence have also involved less direct methods, such as establishing military bases in Syria and forming alliances with Middle Eastern countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Yet, the recent quick collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and overwhelming losses in Ukraine show that Russia may have overextended itself, threatening its ability to sustain such an expansive geopolitical strategy.
The Limitations of China’s Ascendancy
China’s rise from a predominantly agrarian society to a global industrial leader has been remarkable. Its economic might and military strength, highlighted by its large navy and significant global investments, seemed poised to position it as the world’s supreme power.
However, signs of economic strain are becoming evident. China’s crackdown on freedoms to enforce party discipline may stifle innovation and creativity. High youth unemployment and a slowing GDP growth rate are exacerbating internal pressures. Additionally, if China were to act on its threats toward Taiwan, it risks not only military losses but severe economic repercussions, potentially undermining its global economic position.
The Decline of American Global Leadership
The United States, under the potential second term of Donald Trump, faces its own set of challenges that could end its nearly century-long global dominance. Key elements that have supported U.S. leadership, such as strong military alliances and a robust economy, are under threat due to internal politics and policy choices favoring outdated industries and questionable economic practices.
Trump’s disregard for traditional alliances, preference for autocratic leaders, and potential economic policies could further isolate the U.S. from its global partners, accelerating the decline of its imperial status.
Towards a New Global Order?
As we witness potential shifts and declines in these four major empires, the future world order remains uncertain. The complexity of current global dynamics makes it difficult to predict the exact nature of the next global system. We may be on the cusp of a major historical shift, akin to the end of World War II or the Cold War, which could usher in a new era of either promise or peril.
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