With a cease-fire and hostage exchange deal between Hamas and Israel announced on Wednesday, recent polling data has highlighted how Vice President Kamala Harris’ alignment with the Biden administration’s policy on Israel’s continuous attacks on Gaza influenced voter support. This stance reportedly led to millions of potential Democratic voters abstaining from voting on Election Day.
A YouGov survey, conducted in collaboration with the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project and released on the same day, indicated that out of the 19 million individuals who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but skipped the polls in 2024, about one-third pinpointed the U.S.-supported conflict in Gaza as their primary reason for not voting.
“Leading the reasons for these non-voters, Gaza was cited by 29%, surpassing the economy at 24% and immigration at 11%,” reported Ryan Grim at Drop Site News, which was the first to cover the story.
In key states that shifted from Biden in 2020 to President-elect Donald Trump in 2024, 20% of non-voters identified the Gaza situation as their reason for not participating in the November elections.
After replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris was under pressure, as Biden had been, to decisively end U.S. support for Israel’s aggressive actions in Gaza, which have resulted in the deaths of over 46,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians including women and children.
Activists urged Harris to back an arms embargo against Israel, aligning the U.S. with its own legal standards, such as Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act, which prohibits military aid to any nation that impedes U.S. humanitarian assistance.
Since the onset of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in October 2023, following a Hamas-initiated attack, the U.S. has executed over 100 military shipments to Israel. The near-complete blockade by Israel on humanitarian aid has pushed parts of Gaza towards famine conditions, as per reports from the World Food Program and various global experts.
“We support you, Vice President Harris, but our voters need to witness a significant policy shift on Gaza, including the adoption of an arms embargo to preserve lives,” stated a leader from the Uncommitted National Movement during an August event. At this gathering, Harris responded to protesters chanting, “We won’t vote for genocide!” by accusing them of preferring a Trump victory.
Despite clarifying, “I am not Joe Biden,” and asserting that her administration would not just be a continuation of Biden’s due to her unique personal and professional experiences, Harris maintained her support for the ongoing White House policy on Gaza, as noted by Grim at Drop Site News.
Grim highlighted that although deviating from Biden’s Gaza policy posed a risk of losing voters who backed his approach, the survey indicated that the potential benefits were considerably greater.
YouGov queried voters who supported Harris and had voted for Biden in 2020 about whether a policy shift on Israel and Gaza would have increased their likelihood to vote for Harris. “By a 35 to 5 margin, they indicated such a change would have made them more enthusiastic about voting for her, with the rest stating it would have made no difference,” reported Grim.
Huwaida Arraf, a Palestinian-American and co-founder of the International Solidarity Movement, described the poll results as “damning,” highlighting that “Israel is a liability.”
Grim acknowledged some limitations of the poll, suggesting that even without the events of October 7 and the ensuing violence, some non-voters might still have abstained due to other reasons.
“Nevertheless, even the most skewed poll only reflects a portion of the reality,” Grim noted. “Even if the actual figures aren’t as dramatic as those found in this survey, they clearly indicate that Biden’s unyielding support for Israel’s actions, and Harris’ reluctance to diverge from his stance, alienated voters who ultimately stayed home.”
The IMEU Policy Project has called on the Democratic Party to confront the genuine reasons behind their loss in November, including their failure to heed over a year of protests and demands to cease arms shipments to Israel. “As the Democratic Party considers potential leaders for 2028 and beyond,” the organization stated, “it should recognize that the overwhelming majority of lost voters in 2024 would prefer to back candidates who oppose sending more weapons to Israel.”
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