Latest Iowa Poll: Harris Ahead of Trump 47-44 in Wake of Abortion Ban

On a surprising Saturday evening, the Des Moines Register disclosed its last poll before Election Day, showing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by a margin of three points.

Harris secured the support of 47% of respondents, while 44% favored Trump.

The poll, crafted by renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer, is considered the benchmark for voter surveys in Iowa. It has a history of accurately forecasting election outcomes in the state and provides insights that often reflect voting trends in other Midwestern states with comparable demographics.

Despite the poll’s reputation, progressive activists warned against relying too heavily on a single poll result. They encouraged Harris’s supporters to persist in grassroots activities like canvassing and phone banking to counter Trump and his far-right MAGA agenda.

The poll’s unexpected findings suggest a shift in voter sentiments in Iowa—a state previously not viewed as a battleground in this election cycle and generally perceived to lean towards Trump. The data highlighted a significant move towards Harris, particularly among female voters.

Among the women surveyed, those aged 65 and older favored Harris over Trump, 63% to 28%. Female political independents also showed strong support for Harris, with 57% backing her compared to 29% for Trump.

According to the poll, women in Iowa overall support Harris by a 20-point lead over Trump.

Impact of Iowa’s Abortion Ban

Iowa journalist Lyz Lenz attributed the polling shift to a significant recent change in Iowa’s law—a six-week abortion ban implemented in July, which prohibits abortion after the detection of fetal cardiac activity. This type of legislation has been linked to the deaths of pregnant women in other states, including Texas and Georgia.

“It’s the abortion ban,” Lenz stated. “Women are furious.”

Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief and founder of Bolts magazine, suggested that the poll results might foretell difficulties for state Supreme Court justices who have supported abortion bans in various states, including Iowa.

This year, voters in 10 states will decide on ballot measures concerning abortion rights. In traditionally Republican states like Kansas and Kentucky, since the overturning of Roe, voters have acted to protect abortion rights.

“It’s the Dobbs election,” remarked Helaine Olen from the American Economic Liberties Project. “The Iowa poll is just the latest evidence.”

J. Ann Selzer herself noted to the BBC that many survey respondents emphasized abortion rights. “Those backing Kamala Harris are primarily concerned with democracy, with about half indicating it’s their top issue,” she explained. “But about a quarter of them pointed to abortion, especially significant given Iowa’s stringent abortion laws.”

Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, advised caution in disregarding Selzer’s poll but warned against completely shifting one’s perspective on the election based on this single data point.

Dan Pfeiffer, former advisor to President Barack Obama and co-host of “Pod Save America,” suggested that while Harris might not be genuinely leading in Iowa, the poll could indicate rising momentum that may impact other crucial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The advocacy group Indivisible, on Sunday morning, spurred its supporters to spread the word about the Iowa poll and engage in voter outreach. “Share this Iowa poll in all your group chats, then sign up to speak with some voters. With your involvement, we can secure a win in just two days,” they urged.